Roadmap for a low-carbon transformation in Morocco

In 2022, when Morocco began to develop a detailed, long-term strategy to lower greenhouse gas emissions, decision-makers were unsure whether a net-zero goal was a realistic target.

SEI, serving as technical adviser to the government, worked to determine the feasibility of a net-zero target and to put together a series of steps that could achieve that vision by 2050 – all while bringing about other benefits for the economy, environment and people’s health and well-being in Morocco.

Comprehensive analysis of economic sectors

Using signature SEI LEAP and NEMO modelling tools, the team first created a comprehensive model of greenhouse gas emissions in Morocco. SEI then assessed the impact of existing and planned measures for climate mitigation, and identified how other measures could help achieve greater impacts. The analysis considered a broad range of issues: the costs and benefits of various options, energy affordability and energy security, economic competitiveness, synergies with climate change adaptation, the prospects for improving living standards, and preserving biodiversity and ecosystems.

The team carefully outlined the details of the model’s results, working closely with stakeholders in public agencies at various levels of government and with private-sector stakeholders representing different economic subsectors. SEI not only helped Morocco develop the overall strategy, but also a complementary set of mitigation plans describing the requirements of the strategy in each major economic sector.

These participatory processes and attention to detail changed the terms of the debate. As stakeholders engaged, they came to both understand and support the 2050 net-zero objective.

For example, Bouzekri Razi, Director of Climate Change, Biological Diversity and Green Economy at Morocco’s Ministry of Energy Transition and Sustainable Development, described the value of the collaboration: “I would like to express my warmest thanks to the Stockholm Environment Institute for their invaluable collaboration and their unfailing commitment and availability in the process of drawing up Morocco’s long-term, low-emissions development strategy for 2050. This project, which began in 2022 and ended in November 2023, involved the entire ecosystem of key public, private and civil society stakeholders from the key sectors of the national economy.”

An initial economic assessment shows the strategy could increase the GDP of Morocco by 4% to 15% and create between 100 000 and 350 000 additional jobs.

Morocco unveiled its plan at the 2023 UN Climate Conference (COP28) in Dubai, detailing the actions it will take and the milestones it will use to measure progress. The package of policies incorporates efforts to boost energy efficiency, expand the use of renewable electricity sources, and do more to leverage practices that support a circular economy and sustainable agriculture and forestry. The strategy will enable Morocco to reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions by more than 2.6 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent by 2050.

Platform for regional leadership and increased climate action

For Morocco, mitigation and adaptation to climate change are both especially important issues because the country depends to a significant degree on imported fossil fuels and faces growing challenges from water scarcity. With this plan, Morocco has emerged as a leader on climate issues in the Middle East and North Africa. Furthermore, the national low-carbon strategy for 2050 will play a role in shaping Morocco’s next round of climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, to be submitted in 2025.