Feature

Q&A: behind-the-scenes insights from Morocco’s low-carbon transformation strategy

Feature

Q&A: behind-the-scenes insights from Morocco’s low-carbon transformation strategy

How were SEI and the Moroccan government able to create a strategy for the country to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050? How did a goal that was initially thought to be too ambitious become viable? What are the insights from the experience that can help others achieve similar results? In this Q&A, Jason Veysey, who led the SEI work, offers a behind-the-scenes look at key features that made the plan possible, and highlights potential lessons for other countries.

Jason Veysey, Karen Brandon / Published on 28 May 2024

What led SEI and the Moroccan government to work together to create a long-term, low-emissions development strategy (LT-LEDS)?: You could say it was a combination of two factors: having an effective tool for the job and a good working relationship from past collaborations.

The Moroccan government wanted to use SEI’s Low Emissions Analysis Platform – LEAP – to develop its strategy. LEAP is a tool for modelling energy systems, greenhouse gas emissions, and sustainable development indicators. Government staff knew LEAP, and from past projects with SEI on national energy outlooks, they knew we could help them use LEAP to do the job. I think they were interested in LEAP for several reasons, including its user friendliness, transparency, and low cost. These attributes meant that government staff would be able to appropriate the model developed for the strategy, and continue using it after the formal project ended.

SEI was also keen to work with Morocco again. Through our engagements there over the last 10 years, we’ve had a first-hand view of the country’s dedication to low-carbon development. When the government recommended that Agence Française de Développement, the funder of a technical support project for the strategy, recruit us as the strategy’s modelers, we were happy to take part.
A signature aspect of the strategy is that it is designed to help Morocco both achieve key economic development aims and lower emissions. These two goals could have instead been viewed as incompatible, rife with trade-offs instead of co-benefits. How was the plan able to knit these aims together?: The strategy is built on a portfolio of almost 100 carefully vetted climate change mitigation measures. The measures were selected with economic and other co-benefits in mind, seeking to leverage Morocco’s comparative advantages. For example, measures related to the hydrogen economy rely on Morocco’s rich endowment of low-cost renewable energy. Renewables like wind and solar will provide the electricity needed to make green hydrogen, which will serve both domestic and export markets. In this way, the economic benefits of the strategy are quite intentional – a consequence of the team looking for mitigation options that advance multiple social priorities. This is a hallmark of the approach we have been advocating through our SEI Initiative on Integrated Climate and Development Planning.
The resulting plan is more ambitious than initially had been thought possible. What were the key features that changed the picture from one that was considered “beyond reach” to one that seems “feasible”?: Our bottom-up modelling approach played a key role here. To construct the strategy, we worked closely with each sector to identify and characterize the sector’s mitigation measures, collecting required data, choosing key assumptions, and assessing impacts. Then we combined all sectors’ measures in the LEAP model. When participants reviewed the resulting national totals, they knew the figures were based on sectoral inputs and commitments that they trusted. This made it easier to endorse the overall net-zero trajectory.

We also subjected the combined, national modelling to multiple rounds of intense stakeholder validation. Through the project’s technical and steering committees, stakeholders from all sectors had repeated opportunities to raise questions, examine specific results, and discuss implications. This process of introspection and debate further familiarized participants with the net-zero plan and solidified support.
Under the plan, Morocco incurs upfront costs but down the line it recoups these costs and starts to save. This long-term thinking is essential for devising effective planning strategies, but it’s hard to move away from short-term thinking, particularly given short-term political cycles. What clinched support for the vision of paying now to invest in ways that will produce savings later? What would you say were the key ingredients for buy-in on this strategy?: The modelling approach we took was an essential factor in securing buy-in from line ministries and sectoral participants. It gave them a voice in the process and assurance of reasonable sectoral responsibilities. Complementing this, and probably more important, was high-level political leadership. Instructions from the highest levels of government emphasized the importance of investing in decarbonization as a way to improve long-term economic competitiveness and growth. This orientation informed sectoral actions and support for the long-term perspective.
What are your insights from this experience? Are there lessons for other countries seeking to do the same? What can other countries learn from Morocco’s plan?: I take a number of lessons from this experience – here are a few of the most important:

There is no one-size-fits-all solution for decarbonization. Because countries can differ so widely in their situations and resources, credible decarbonization plans are place specific. In Morocco, for instance, the net-zero plan is built on competitive advantages like the availability of solar and wind power and key industrial competencies. In another country the story might be different. The place specificity of decarbonization is a factor that is often overlooked in global modelling studies, such as those that underlie the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This highlights the importance of national modelling efforts like Morocco’s.

Progress requires a combination of top-down and bottom-up policymaking. The project would not have succeeded without a guiding mandate from top decision-makers and dedicated action by sectoral ministries and stakeholders. Both elements were necessary. They worked together to create a comprehensive, well-supported plan. To connect the two, Morocco created a system of governance for the strategy that ensured broad stakeholder participation while clearly communicating responsibilities and objectives. This two-pronged approach to developing decarbonization policy is a useful example for other countries.

Capacity development is essential – to give planning processes the legitimacy needed to achieve political buy-in, and to make it possible for governments to chart their own futures. An important part of our work on the strategy involved training government partners on the model we built – how to use, maintain, and extend it. This was a change of practice for Morocco. In the past, government staff had used results from climate change mitigation modelling conducted by consultants, but they had not run the models themselves. Directly involving government partners in the modelling that underpinned the strategy increased the legitimacy and acceptance of our analysis, and it put Morocco in a position to apply the model to future questions – such as the 2025 update of its Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement. Similar efforts to build government capacity for modelling and scenario analysis would be helpful in other countries.