The European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) is a first-of-its-kind analysis conducted by many of Europe’s leading climate change experts. It systematically examines the wide range of threats Europe faces from global warming. The analysis integrates both quantitative and qualitative evidence to assess how extreme weather events and slow-onset changes (such as rising sea levels), accelerated by climate change, will impact the European economy, society, and environment over the coming years and decades, and the implications of these impacts on the health and well-being of European citizens.

The report also goes beyond many earlier assessments to describe the complexities of climate change. It explores how climate impacts can cascade across borders and sectors and be amplified by non-climatic risks (e.g., geopolitical conflicts) and societal vulnerabilities.

Equally important, the assessment explores Europe’s preparedness and capability to withstand and recover from these climate change impacts – especially concerning the readiness of public policies at the EU level, which is critical since national policies supporting adaptation to climate change have been seriously lagging in many European countries.

The publication of the EUCRA is particularly important at this time as we have been witnessing the impacts of climate change unfold more rapidly over the last few years than climate scientists had anticipated. In fact, the assessment concludes that Europe faces a wide range of potentially catastrophic climate risks, for which it is largely unprepared.

It has also become increasingly clear that our collective failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions sufficiently has locked us into devastating climate impacts that are now unavoidable. Therefore, the risk assessment plays a crucial role as a stark warning for European policy-makers, and a call to action. Against this backdrop, the risk assessment takes an important first step in charting a blueprint for European policy-makers to enhance the resilience of the European economy and society against these unavoidable risks.

I had various roles throughout the development of the EUCRA. I was part of a small team of experts who conducted a high-level assessment of the readiness of EU policies to manage the climate risks identified in the report and developed sets of recommendations for European policymakers to guide the prioritization of policy responses. In this context, I was one of the lead authors of two chapters that focused on EU policies and risk ownership, and priorities for actions, respectively. I was also one of two lead authors for a chapter that examined the risks of climate change to global supply chains, on which European countries are highly dependent for essential commodities, including food, medicine, and critical raw materials.

My SEI colleagues Richard Klein and Frida Lager also played an instrumental role in the development of this report. Richard Klein was one of the main architects of the climate risk assessment and played a key role in defining its focus, scope and structure. On the other hand, Frida Lager, an expert on social justice, provided valuable insights into how climate change will have disproportionate effects on vulnerable social groups, such as low-income households and the elderly, and the importance of taking a fair and equitable approach to climate adaptation.

One of the main reasons the risk assessment was fast-tracked for publication ahead of spring is so that its findings can help inform and hopefully influence the priorities of the next EU Commission relating to climate adaptation policies. This includes the prioritization of EU adaptation investments for the next Multi-annual Financial Framework. The assessment will also inform further policy developments by the EU, and hopefully by member states as well, to enhance resilience in climate-sensitive sectors, such as food and water, ecosystems, health, infrastructure, and financial systems and trade.

Unfortunately, the risk assessment has some limitations and constraints due to the fast-tracked nature of its production, and is limited to the synthesis of the existing body of scientific evidence. As a result, some important areas fell beyond the scope of this first assessment, such as the implications of climate change on human migration – both within Europe and from beyond. The risk assessment also identified critical knowledge gaps for certain climate risks that need to be addressed through further scientific research and climate risk analyses.