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Researchers explore development scenarios for low- and lower-middle-income countries should fossil fuel production and use decline to limit global warming.
SEI’s Ploy Achakulwisut contributed to this journal article, published in Nature Energy.
The production and use of coal, oil and gas must rapidly decline to to keep the 1.5°C global warming goal in reach.
At COP28, governments agreed to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner”. What this means and how it can be achieved in practice are some of the most pertinent and complex questions our society faces as we race to keep 1.5°C in reach, especially for fossil fuel producers in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs).
In this Nature Energy article, the authors propose a classification of three different types of transitions and support, arguing that the different qualities in LLMICs’ fossil fuel production and usage substantially impacts their pathways towards low-carbon development, namely: an energy transition, an economic transition, and an equitable fossil fuel production transition. Based on this classification scheme, the authors focus on four countries – Mozambique, India, Lao PDR and Angola – as illustrative LLMICs with varying contexts.
The authors argue that crafting an approach to replacing fossil fuels that is acceptable to all countries depends on coordinated action at both national and international levels, including a substantial, comprehensive, accessible and rapid burst of financial and capacity-building support targeted towards fossil-fuel-producing LLMICs.
Initiative / The Carbon Lock-In Initiative seeks to uncover and address the barriers that uphold the fossil fuel-based economy.
Other publication / Countries will, in aggregate, produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
Journal article / Researchers analyse IPCC Sixth Assessment Report mitigation scenarios and their implications for limiting fossil fuel production.
Perspective / The Paris Agreement goals are still within our grasp if policymakers decisively act now, say SEI US Scientists Peter Erickson and Ploy Achakulwisut.
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