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Journal article

A sustainable trajectory for the 2030 Agenda: targeting historical lock-ins to accelerate progress on all SDGs

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Journal article

A sustainable trajectory for the 2030 Agenda: targeting historical lock-ins to accelerate progress on all SDGs

The authors present an empirically based and transparent method for developing “consistent scenarios” that identifies which SDGs will be unattainable if historical patterns of interaction between SDGs are maintained. Using historical data on SDG indicators and correlation analysis together with cross-impact balance analysis, they identify such scenarios for a set of high- to low-income countries.

Henrik Carlsen, Nina Weitz, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Kristina Petrova / Published on 26 February 2024

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Citation

Carlsen, H., Weitz, N., Petrova, K., & Kemp-Benedict, E. (2024). A sustainable trajectory for the 2030 Agenda: targeting historical lock-ins to accelerate progress on all SDGs. Sustainable Development, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2929

The 2030 Agenda states that the 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) make parts of an indivisible whole, and research on SDG implementation highlights how managing goal interactions – synergies and trade-offs – is key for implementation to be successful.

The authors of this paper find no consistent scenario where progress can be made on all 17 SDGs for any of the countries. Their findings demonstrate the importance of policies that target interactions and resolve trade-offs rather than individual goals to unlock a sustainable future trajectory. This reflects what was novel about the SDGs as a framework for global development; that the goals are indivisible and achieving them all require systemic changes that alter how social and economic processes interact with the environment.

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SEI authors

Henrik Carlsen
Henrik Carlsen

Senior Research Fellow

SEI Headquarters

Nina Weitz
Nina Weitz

Team Leader: Global Goals and Systems; Senior Research Fellow

SEI Headquarters

Eric Kemp-Benedict
Eric Kemp-Benedict

SEI Affiliated Researcher

SEI US

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