Marine perspectives have recently made their way into a range of unconventional topics, from infrastructure to defence, and it sometimes seems like the ocean is expected to offer solutions to everything from food security to energy production. Against this backdrop, a series of important ocean-related negotiations and processes are under way that could reshape ocean governance and finance. Here are 10 major developments to keep an eye on:

1. High hopes for the 2025 UN Ocean Conference. A year from now, the city of Nice, France, will host the next UN conference on the ocean. Co-chairs France and Costa Rica are moving to position it as a pivotal moment for the ocean, on par with the Paris Agreement for climate negotiations. What is evident is that there is a great need for global action to restore ocean health. The last such high-level conference, in Lisbon in 2022, made it abundantly clear that to protect our future, we must save our ocean, given the important role the ocean plays for biodiversity, the climate system and the water cycle. Since then, ocean waters have spiked their warmest temperatures in recorded history, iconic coral reefs have died, and pressure has increased from human activities that cause pollution and harm marine ecosystems through climate changes and more.
2. Increased need for marine spatial planning. The ocean is getting increasingly crowded with all sorts of activities – from energy production to transport, tourism, fishing, deep-sea mining and greenhouse gas sequestration. To manage competing interests and improve coordination on how countries use marine resources, the High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy (the Ocean Panel) urges all countries to develop Sustainable Ocean Plans by 2030. Marine spatial planning will be essential to help countries avoid costly mistakes linked to unregulated development. Such planning is the leading standard to analyse the spatial and temporal distribution of human activities in marine areas, but the methodology is not yet applied to the extent needed.
3. New focus on the “blue economy”. Both governments and the private sector hope that marine activities will bring sustained economic growth while helping to solve various problems. One notable trend is to locate functions such as energy production offshore. But more controversial plans include those for deep-sea mining of critical minerals and storage of captured carbon. Meanwhile, discussions are intensifying on what constitutes a sustainable blue economy and which regulations are needed. In an unprecedented move, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has adopted an agreement to end harmful fisheries subsidies, which will become operational once two-thirds of WTO members have deposited their “instruments of acceptance”.
4. Changes to the ocean lead to new security risks. Security and military experts have been taking a greater interest in the ocean, for several reasons. Geopolitical tensions have increased military activities in parts of the world, heightening concern about potential attacks against marine infrastructure. With about 39% of the world’s marine borders still undefined, “border-grabbing” is a growing concern in the current geopolitical landscape. The impacts of global warming can also intensify competition, as we have seen in the Arctic, which is now more easily navigated as Arctic ice melts with climate change. Similarly, sea-level rise causes insecurity since it can change marine territorial delimitations, in addition to making local communities more vulnerable.
5. Greater role for the ocean in climate negotiations. The ocean also features more prominently in discussions ahead of the next UN Climate Conference (UNFCCC COP29), in Azerbaijan in November. According to new research commissioned by the Ocean Panel, ocean-based climate solutions are more important than previously thought – for example, they could deliver up to 35% of the greenhouse gas emission cuts needed to keep the global temperature rise at 1.5°C. Risks from the ocean are also at the core of discussions about climate justice. Examples include the UNFCCC Loss and Damage Fund, to compensate countries that suffer disproportionally from climate change, and the ongoing negotiations around a Multidimensional Vulnerability Index that could entitle more small island states to concessional financing, or below-market rates for loans. The topic will be further discussed during the high-level meeting on the existential threat posed by sea-level rise that the UN has scheduled for 25 September in New York, right after the UN Summit for the Future.
6. The new “biodiversity treaty for the ocean” will soon enter into force. An important step in the right direction is the new Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) Agreement, which looks set to enter into force sometime this year after ratification by 60 countries. This legally binding milestone agreement covers the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity for the two-thirds of the ocean that is located outside countries’ jurisdiction, and which has so far been subject to a rather fragmented regulatory framework.
7. The “source-to-sea” approach elevates the ocean in biodiversity negotiations. Countries are now preparing for the 16th meeting of the parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16), which will take place in October. The stakes are high, as the Biodiversity Plan agreed in 2022 sets ambitious goals and targets, calling for the conservation of 30% of the world’s lands, waters and seas by 2030. COP16 will review progress so far and discuss implementation, with a strong emphasis on how land, coasts and the ocean are connected. Countries are encouraged to apply a source-to-sea approach that considers the impact that activities on land have on the ocean. Another strong trend is for countries to seek solutions that simultaneously address biodiversity and climate needs.
8. The world’s first plastic treaty is on the horizon. Hopefully, the world can agree on a legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, including in marine areas, before the end of 2024. The process has been unusually fast, partly because many countries are worried by projections that plastic pollution could double between 2020 and 2030. Here, too, the source-to-sea approach is considered crucial, since most of the plastics in the ocean emanates from activities on land.
9. A mix of nature-based solutions and innovative technologies offers new hope for coastal resilience. By combining nature-based solutions with new modular and gridless technologies, coastal regions and island states can get much better protection from extreme weather events and other growing risks. SEI research has demonstrated how unconventional, small-scale and off-grid technologies are increasingly viable options in many different contexts. Now SEI is working together with eight countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in the project Resilient Coasts to develop “Living Labs” for increasing coastal resilience while promoting sustainable coastal livelihoods.
10. Small states hope for big wins in courts and negotiations. Small island states scored a historic win in April, when the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea issued an “advisory opinion” recognizing greenhouse gases as marine pollutants that states are obliged to mitigate. According to the UN General Assembly President Dennis Francis, the ruling could set the basis for future climate jurisprudence. The court’s decision came shortly before the Fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States, where it was seen as a major victory in the fight to get better access to climate adaptation funding.