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Modeling air pollutant emission reductions from implementation of Pakistan’s 2023 Clean Air Policy

In this study, the authors described their quantitative air pollutant and greenhouse gas mitigation modeling assessment at national and subnational scale. The assessment provided evidence to inform Pakistan’s 2023 Clean Air Policy (PCAP).

Jessica Slater, Chris Malley / Published on 4 July 2024

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Citation

Slater, J., Aftab, L., Jamshaid, H., Amjad, M., Bashir, S., Shafique, S., Bathan, G., Espita-Casanova, D., & Malley, C. S. (2024). Modeling air pollutant emission reductions from implementation of Pakistan's 2023 Clean Air Policy. ACS ES&T Air. https://doi.org/10.1021/acsestair.4c00003.

Pakistan endures dangerous levels of air pollution, with approximately 235 000 premature deaths annually due to exposure of both particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone. Having initiated multiple air quality improvement programs already, in 2023 the Government of Pakistan approved the Pakistan Clean Air Policy (PCAP). The policy was informed by an air pollution and climate change mitigation assessment.

The assessment identified five major air pollutant-emitting sources nationally and their percentage contribution to national total primary PM2.5 emissions:

  • Households (35%)
  • Transport (5%)
  • Industry (16%)
  • Agriculture (17%)
  • Waste (24%)
High-angle view of a district in Karachi, Pakistan.

High-angle view of a district in Karachi, the largest city in Pakistan.

Photo: Getty Images / SM Rafiq Photography

By producing an inventory of Pakistan’s greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions, the authors were able to identify 18 mitigation measures through which the Pakistan Government could greatly improve the country’s air quality, thereby improving health outcomes and contributing to Pakistan achieving its climate change goals.

The PCAP identified a priority mitigation measure for each of the five major sectors, such as improving household access to clean cooking technologies or banning crop burning. If implemented, these priority measures could collectively reduce Pakistan’s national PM2.5 emissions by 36.4% in 2030 compared to a scenario in which no action is taken. However, the authors highlighted that if all 18 mitigation measures identified were to be implemented, primary PM2.5 emissions would be reduced by 80% by 2050.

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SEI authors

Chris Malley

Senior Research Fellow

SEI York

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