Editor’s choice
SEI Research Fellow Ploy Achakulwisut and Affiliated Researcher Peter Erickson co-authored a guest post in Carbon Brief, detailing their recently published research on climate mitigation scenarios compiled in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment report (AR6) and what they say about how quickly the world must wean itself off fossil fuels to head off long-term global warming above 1.5°C.
Fracking rig in rural western Pennsylvania, US.
New research recently published in Nature Communications found that, after scrutinizing hundreds of climate mitigation scenarios contained in the IPCC AR6 report, global coal, oil and gas supply must decline by an average of 95%, 62% and 42%, respectively, from 2020 to 2050 in order to limit long-term warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot of that ceiling.
In their column for Carbon Brief, the researchers explain that while there is relative consensus about the pace of phase-out needed for coal and oil, the role of gas varies widely across scenarios, with some including possibly untenable dependence on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR).
Given that so many pathways rely on more CCS and CDR than what experts believe is achievable, narratives describing gas as a “bridge” or “transition” fuel may be misplaced, the authors argue.
Regardless, phasing out all three forms of fossil fuels would bring a multitude of benefits, the piece says, including protecting human rights and ecosystems in addition to cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, the production and consumption of fossil fuels must decline steeply and rapidly between now and 2050.
Journal article / Researchers analyse IPCC Sixth Assessment Report mitigation scenarios and their implications for limiting fossil fuel production.
Initiative / The Carbon Lock-In Initiative seeks to uncover and address the barriers that uphold the fossil fuel-based economy.
Perspective / The Paris Agreement goals are still within our grasp if policymakers decisively act now, say SEI US Scientists Peter Erickson and Ploy Achakulwisut.
Perspective / SEI Senior Scientist Peter Erickson says it's possible for the US to offset European dependence on Russian LNG and advance climate goals.
Other publication / The 2021 report reveals that countries' fossil fuel production plans remain dangerously out of sync with the limits consistent with the Paris Agreement.
Design and development by Soapbox.
