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The SEI Initiative on Fossil Fuels and Climate Change creates a platform for high-quality, timely, and policy-relevant research and communications on how fossil fuel supply can be aligned with climate goals, while ensuring a just and equitable transition for communities in producing regions.
Most fossil fuel reserves will need to be left in the ground if we are to avoid dangerous climate change and meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming “well below” 2°C. This is a daunting challenge. For many countries, fossil fuel extraction and trade are central to energy security and economic development. There is also limited knowledge about climate-related policy interventions that might affect future patterns of fossil-fuel production.
The SEI Initiative on Fossil Fuels and Climate Change advances knowledge on this topic, both through research and by helping build a “community of practice” on the connection between fossil fuel supply, climate change, and development. It builds on SEI’s partnerships and capacity-building activities around the world, engaging recognized leaders on climate change mitigation, energy modelling, political economy, equity and the climate change negotiations.
Photo: Geof Wilson / Flickr.
The Initiative investigates:
Through this research, policy-makers, international organizations, businesses and civil society gain a better understanding of how the institutions, investments and infrastructure that support fossil fuel production can lock in dependence on fossil fuels – and how societies can move away from such dependency. Through communications, SEI is raising the profile of supply-side climate policy, both in the literature and among policy-makers
The Initiative’s work serves as a foundation for debates and discussions on local, national and international scales. The Initiative has established the International Conference on Fossil Fuel Supply and Climate Change – held in 2016 and 2018, with multiple partners and sponsors – which brings together policy-makers, researchers, and civil society actors to spark new ideas, new research and new connections.
Its research also contributes to local and regional debates on fossil fuel production. Recent reports, for example, tackle topics such as how Colombia can plan for a future without coal and the complex dynamics surrounding Indonesia’s coal production, as well as how Canada’s oil sands can contribute to carbon lock-in and how limiting oil production can help California meet its climate goals. A journal article in Climatic Change examines whether constraining US fossil fuel production would affect global CO2 emissions.
The Initiative’s work on international institutions and governance includes journal articles, op-eds and policy briefs. An article in Climate Policy, for example, outlined reasons why it is important to address fossil fuel supply under the UNFCCC, and a policy brief served as a submission to the UNFCCC Talanoa Dialogue. The initiative (and SEI) participated in the Dialogue in a session on “Where do we want to go?”
The Initiative is also examining how social mobilization factors into climate change policy-making. A recent article in Climate Policy explored the influence of social movements on policies that constrain fossil fuel supply.
This work has helped raise awareness of the need to look at both supply and demand when crafting climate change policies. The body of research on this topic continues to grow, and policy-makers have begun to enact policies aimed at limiting fossil fuel supply – such as moratoriums on further offshore development in New Zealand and France.
Our goal is to continue to deepen understanding, build a thriving community of practice, and contribute to practical policy development at the national and international levels.
Feature / The new Production Gap Report shows that the world is on track to produce 120% more fossil fuels than can be burned under 1.5°C warming.
Press release / As Congress focuses anew on climate, SEI researchers outline three principles to inform the structure of a rapid phase-out of U.S. fossil fuel production.
Press release / As the UN climate negotiations approach, a paper in Nature Climate Change highlights a growing movement by governments to leave oil resources “in the ground”.
Press release / The conference will bring together academics and practitioners to discuss whether and how climate policy should seek to limit the supply of fossil fuels.
Feature / Deforestation and corruption are among the problems Indonesia faces as its coal mining sector expands.
Feature / The continued expansion of Canada’s oil sands could slow the world’s transition to a low-carbon future, according to a new SEI report.
Press release / California has numerous options to limit oil production and send a timely and important signal on climate, according to a new analysis.
Press release / Ending the production of coal, oil and natural gas from public lands and waters could significantly reduce CO2 emissions by the US, according to a new study.
Press release / A proposed methanol plant in Washington State could increase global greenhouse gas emissions and is likely inconsistent with a low-carbon future.
Perspective / Norway has some of the most ambitious emissions policies in the world, but is opening oil fields that cannot pay back in a safe climate future.
Perspective / A Bureau of Ocean Energy Management report shows ceasing new Arctic and Gulf of Mexico drilling could decrease global CO2 by over 2 billion tonnes cumulatively.
Feature / SEI and Earth Track finds that at 50 USD per barrel, federal and state incentives are decisive in the economic viability of 45% of new crude oil resources.
Perspective / One US presidential candidate has proposed phasing out oil and gas on federal lands. It's a necessary, and straightforward, step.
Feature / The Talanoa Dialogue will culminate at the UN climate negotiations this month. But what does that mean? This explainer answers that, and more.
Perspective / Some stand to lose out in the transition away from fossil fuels unless policies that address inequality and injustice are put in place.
Perspective / As debate continues over limiting oil production, SEI scientists Peter Erickson and Michael Lazarus weigh in on the finer points.
Perspective / The UN deal doesn’t mention coal, oil or gas, but it can still be used to limit their extraction.
Perspective / SEI Scientist Georgia Piggot, who participated in the Talanoa Dialogue, explains the nuts, bolts and ambitions of this UNFCCC storytelling event.
Perspective / The past decade has seen the rise of the "keep-it-in-the-ground" movement. What influence will it have on climate policy?
Perspective / While some of the political dynamics of the coal sector are very specific to Colombia, there are important lessons for transitions away from coal extraction.
Perspective / Leaders need to start addressing coal, oil and gas production as well as greenhouse gas emissions to prevent dangerous climate change.
Perspective / Can the international trade system reform fossil fuel subsidies to relieve costs, reduce pollution, improve energy security and tackle climate change?
Perspective / Efforts to slow the expansion of fossil-fuel infrastructure can forestall entrenched interests and emissions until more far-reaching policies are in place.
Perspective / The Marrakech talks may not have tackled the gap between global climate goals and fossil fuel production, but governments can show leadership now.
Other publication / This report is the first assessment of the gap between Paris Agreement goals and countries’ planned production of coal, oil and gas.
SEI working paper / This paper assesses the existing knowledge base to better understand the economic, social and political consequences of mine closures.
SEI working paper / Nationally determined contributions could help in the wind-down of oil, gas and coal production. But countries are only making limited use of this potential.
SEI report / South Africa's coal production may decline significantly in the next few years. This report explores impacts, challenges and key elements of that transition.
SEI working paper / This working paper outlines three principles that can inform debate on an equitable phase-out of U.S. fossil fuel extraction.
SEI brief / Do transition policies address the needs of the most disadvantaged? This brief examines policies in the US and Thailand to highlight key equity considerations.
Journal article / This paper finds that California could reduce global emissions substantially if it joined a growing list of governments that limit oil production.
SEI brief / This policy brief explores what a sudden decline in coal demand could mean for Colombia, and how the country can ensure a smooth transition away from coal.
Journal article / What are the practical, political and ethical challenges in supply-side climate policy?
Journal article / This article outlines why it is important that Parties to the Paris Agreement explicitly address the phasing out of fossil fuel production under the UNFCCC.
SEI working paper / This paper explores the complex dynamics that could affect Indonesia’s future coal production and export levels.
SEI brief / Current and future oil sands projects may contribute to a long-term global oversupply of oil, slowing the necessary low-carbon transition outside Canada.
SEI brief / This brief explains the rationale for considering fossil fuel supply under the UNFCCC Talanoa Dialogue, and highlights available policy options.
SEI brief / This brief examines how California could limit the production of its principal energy production and the resulting implications for global GHG emissions.
Journal article / This article examines the emissions implications of a cessation of new leases for fossil fuel extraction on U.S. federal lands and waters.
SEI brief / This discussion brief explores the possibility of a “climate test” for new industrial development by focusing on a case study in the US State of Washington.
SEI working paper / Analysis of the political factors that shape subsidies to coal extraction in Colombia, and why and how those subsidies have been promoted.
Journal article / This journal article describes the growing movement to restrain fossil fuel development and explores the role it plays in climate change policy-making.
SEI brief / How can countries phase-down fossil fuel production within the current architecture of the Paris Agreement?
SEI working paper / How can countries more explicitly address the phasing out of fossil fuel production within the current architecture of the Paris Agreement?
SEI brief / This discussion brief evaluates how two tax support measures will boost future oil and gas production in Norway, increasing the country’s fossil fuel exports an
SEI brief / This discussion brief examines the political economy of large-scale coal production in Colombia and its implications for a transition away from coal.
SEI brief / Este resumen de discusión examina la economía política de la extracción de carbón a gran escala en Colombia y sus implicaciones para la transición energética.
Journal article / This article discusses the possible role of the UNFCCC in tackling fossil fuel subsidies.
SEI brief / The implications of the Paris Agreement, and Norway’s own pledges under it, for oil production, considering the break-even cost of developing different fields
SEI working paper / The effect of subsidies on U.S. oil production, focusing on fields that have been discovered but not yet developed, and the climate implications.
SEI working paper
Journal article
Journal article
Other publication / Natural Gas: Guardrails for a Potential Climate Bridge
Videos: SEI / YouTube.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion is a top priority for climate and energy policies. However, such policies have yet to put fossil fuel use on a trajectory consistent with keeping warming well below 2°C, let alone 1.5°C. Recognizing this shortcoming, policy-makers, researchers and civil society actors have begun to consider and enact a new suite of complementary policies and actions that aim to phase down fossil fuels in a more comprehensive way – by also limiting fossil fuel extraction.
The International Conference on Fossil Fuel Supply and Climate Policy explores the many opportunities for, and challenges of, these supply-side strategies for limiting coal, oil, and gas, recognizing that many countries rely on fossil fuel extraction and trade for their energy security, economic development, and political influence.
The first conference, held in 2016, sparked new ideas, research and connections among finance specialists, industry representatives, international organizations, civil society, and academic researchers. This second two-day conference built on the growing interest in whether and how climate policy should seek to limit the supply of fossil fuels. It brought together researchers and practitioners to reflect on lessons learned and continue the discussion on how policies, plans and investment decisions on fossil fuel extraction and trade can be more consistent with long-term climate goals, and how a just transition away from the fossil fuel economy can be secured.
See the 2018 Conference themes
On March 14, 2018, SEI and Grupo Laera hosted a workshop in Bogota, Colombia on coal transitions.
The Cerrejón mine in Colombia. Photo: Tanenhaus / Flickr.
The workshop, held under the auspices of the SEI Initiative on Fossil Fuels and Climate Change, was titled “Dialogues: preparing for a global decline in coal consumption. Building resilient regional economies in times of transition.” It aimed to generate debate on an issue that has attracted little attention in public and academic debates so far in Colombia: how to prepare for a scenario in which coal production declines?
Building on insights from other parts of the world that have experienced coal transitions or other types of mining closure, the workshop explored the challenges that lie ahead as regions start to comprehend what a future decline in coal production might mean for decisions about regional development policies. It also explored the role of different actors in supporting coal transitions and building socio-economic resilience in coal-producing areas.
The workshop’s participants included a wide range of public officials from the national and subnational levels, researchers, and representatives of civil society organizations, as well as aid agencies and private foundations.
A policy brief based on the insights of this workshop can be found here.
Journal article / What are the practical, political and ethical challenges in supply-side climate policy?
SEI brief / This brief explains the rationale for considering fossil fuel supply under the UNFCCC Talanoa Dialogue, and highlights available policy options.
SEI brief / This policy brief explores what a sudden decline in coal demand could mean for Colombia, and how the country can ensure a smooth transition away from coal.
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