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More than 150 countries have signed the Global Methane Pledge to reduce emissions of methane – which is second only to carbon dioxide as a contributor to climate change. If the world is to meet the reduction aims by the 2030 target year, then the time to turn pledges into concrete mitigation actions is now. Where to start? Actions in existing climate change commitments – contained in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions – offer one way to begin.
Measures that can help achieve the aim of the Global Methane Pledge include reducing methane emissions from livestock. Photo: Bloomberg Creative / Getty Images.
Since the Global Methane Pledge was launched in 2021, methane emissions have remained stubbornly high – even at a time in which technological solutions were in reach and relatively cheap, International Energy Agency assessments show.
With just seven years remain to achieve its central aim of reduce methane by 30% (from 2020 levels), emissions must fall by more than 4% every year. This raises the question: How can the world move from pledge to action?
Our new research with colleagues from the Stockholm Environment Institute and Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) sets out a roadmap, using climate change commitments that have already been made as the starting point for action. This concept underlines the importance of efforts to develop ambitious but realistic methane-reduction initiatives such as the Methane Roadmap Action Programme, a focus of the UN Environment Programme Climate and Clean Air Conference taking place this week in Bangkok.
The commitments that countries already have at their disposal are tucked into their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which outline countries’ climate change targets to meet their obligations under the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gases – including methane. Within these plans countries often specify the actions, policies and measures that they will prioritize to achieve these targets.
Actions included in existing climate change plans can achieve the aims of the pledge if implemented to their full potential.
Our research shows that the actions countries have submitted and committed to undertake through their NDCs are enough to achieve the aim of the Global Methane Pledge. The NDCs contain 476 specific methane-mitigating actions. Countries have many ways to take actions, including:
The good news: these 476 methane mitigation actions cover 40% of global methane emissions.
The bad news: many of these mitigation measures are not 100% effective at reducing methane emissions – meaning that even the full implementation of these measures would not reduce global methane emissions by that 40%. For example, alternate wetting and drying in rice paddy fields can approximately halve methane emissions compared to fields that are continuously flooded – but would not eliminate such emissions entirely. By contrast, much higher percentage reductions can be achieved for technical measures in other areas, such as fossil fuel production and waste sectors.
Accounting for this effectiveness gap, we estimate that the implementation of the 476 methane mitigation actions in the NDCs could reduce 31% of global methane emissions by 2030 – enough to achieve the aim of the pledge.
Some actions are bigger wins than others. Over half of these methane reductions are possible by taking just 13 of the 476 measures we identified. This underscores that big-emitting countries must do two things: 1) have methane emission reduction actions in their climate change plans, and 2) implement these actions. The “big win” actions include reducing methane emissions from coal mines and oil and gas operations in China; from oil and gas operations in the United States; from wastewater emissions in India; and from oil and gas operations in many countries, especially Iraq, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia.
Not all of these big emitters have signed the pledge. For example, China, India and Russia have not signed on.
But this only underlines why the NDCs are so important as a device for moving forward. Countries around the world – even those that have not committed to the methane pledge – are already committed to methane-related actions as part of their wider climate change plans. These plans have already won the political support that was needed for their creation. Our roadmap demonstrates that by emphasizing and taking these methane-related actions that are under the NDCs, even countries that are not part of the formal pledge can take essential actions to help the world achieve its aim.
Over half of these methane reductions are possible by taking just 13 of the 476 measures identified.
There is another important detail: ambition. The scale of action must be ambitious and big – bigger than currently committed to. To achieve the pledge requires that every measures included in the NDCs is implemented to the greatest extent that is currently technically possible. Most countries do not specify how much they intend to implement each action within their climate change plans. And many of those countries that do state their implementation levels fall short of this full-on scale of implementation.
Are there ways to do this? Yes. Countries must update their NDCs every five years, with the next update due in 2025. As countries begin that process, they should do so understanding that by simply including one additional methane mitigation action in their NDC they could collectively help to achieve or exceed the Global Methane Pledge. At this time, countries can also commit to implement actions to the greatest extent possible given current technologies.
If all countries included an action to reduce methane from their country’s largest emission source that is not already covered in their plans, these actions could reduce global methane emissions by an additional 15%. Action in the 10 largest methane sources that are not covered by countries in their climate plans currently could reduce global methane emissions by 13%.
Countries now need to build on what they have. They should explicitly state what actions they will take, and set concrete timelines and targets. A pledge is a start, but it’s time to move ahead.
In 2021, the Global Methane Pledge was launched to reduce global anthropogenic methane emissions by 30% by 2030 compared to 2020 levels. It has since been signed by more than 150 countries, which collectively produce 55% of global methane emissions. Some of the largest methane-emitting countries, including India, China, and Russia, have not signed up.
Reducing methane can dramatically reduce global temperature increases in the short term. The lifetime of methane in the atmosphere is only roughly 15 years, compared to the centuries-long lifetime of carbon dioxide emissions, but during this relatively brief time, methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas.
The pledge set a global target, but it did not prescribe how to achieve the target. It left many issues unresolved: It did not outline the extent to which different sectors would need to reduce methane emissions. It did not require signing countries to make specific commitments. It did not set out a process to determine how countries would contribute to meeting the pledge.
To make the pledge a reality will require countries to take these steps, regardless of whether they signed the pledge. The pledge itself represents a floor – not a ceiling – for reductions that are needed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5° C.
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