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This report, from leading research institutions and the UN Environment Programme, is the first assessment of the gap between Paris Agreement goals and countries’ planned production of coal, oil and gas.
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This report addresses the necessary winding down of the world’s production of fossil fuels in order to meet climate goals. Though coal, oil, and gas are the central drivers of climate change, they are rarely the subject of international climate policy and negotiations. This report aims to expand that discourse and provide a metric for assessing how far the world is from production levels that are consistent with global climate goals.
Specifically, this first Production Gap Report assesses the discrepancy between government plans for fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with 1.5°C and 2°C pathways. This production gap tells us the magnitude of the challenge.
The report reviews, across 10 fossil-fuel-producing countries, the policies and actions that expand fossil fuel production and, in turn, widen the gap. It also provides policy options that can help countries better align production with climate goals. This is especially relevant over the next year, as countries prepare new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which set out their new emission reduction plans and climate pledges under the Paris Agreement.
The report was produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), International Institute for Sustainable Development, Overseas Development Institute, CICERO Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Climate Analytics, and the UN Environment Programme.
Initiative / This SEI initiative creates a platform for high-quality, timely and policy-relevant research and communications on various facets of fossil fuel development.
Feature / The new Production Gap Report shows that the world is on track to produce 120% more fossil fuels than can be burned under 1.5°C warming.
SEI working paper / Nationally determined contributions could help in the wind-down of oil, gas and coal production. But countries are only making limited use of this potential.
Journal article / This article outlines why it is important that Parties to the Paris Agreement explicitly address the phasing out of fossil fuel production under the UNFCCC.
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