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This study examines mitigation scenarios from a database by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report and their implications for a decline in fossil fuel supply in the coming decades.
The mitigation scenarios database of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report is an important resource for informing policy-making on energy transitions. It contains a large variety of models, scenario designs, and resulting outputs.
In this study, researchers analyse the scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C or below regarding the speed, trajectory and feasibility of different fossil fuel reduction pathways. Higher-gas pathways are enabled by higher carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR), but are likely associated with inadequate model representation of regional CO2 storage capacity and technology adoption, diffusion and path dependencies.
These findings suggest the need to adopt unambiguous near- and long-term reduction benchmarks in coal, oil and gas production and use alongside other climate mitigation targets.
Other publication / SEI's Peter Erickson co-authored report that outlines the flaws in the US' environmental review of fossil fuel projects and proposes some fixes.
Perspective / The Paris Agreement goals are still within our grasp if policymakers decisively act now, say SEI US Scientists Peter Erickson and Ploy Achakulwisut.
Other publication / The 2021 report reveals that countries' fossil fuel production plans remain dangerously out of sync with the limits consistent with the Paris Agreement.
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