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The third edition of the Production Gap Report reveals that governments’ plans for fossil fuel production remain dangerously out of sync with pledges consistent with the Paris Agreement’s global warming limits.
Photo: Peter Stasiewicz / Getty Images.
Leading research institutes and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) find that despite increased climate ambitions and net-zero commitments, governments still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than what would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
This report first introduced and quantified the “production gap” in 2019. Two years on, with the climate crisis clearer and more urgent than ever, governments continue to bet on extracting far more coal, oil, and gas than is consistent with agreed climate limits – and even those pledges won’t hold global warming to even 2°C.
Source: 2021 Production Gap Report.
Many governments have announced new, more ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets, including net-zero pledges, since the report’s 2019 debut. While this is a positive development, only a few fossil-fuel-producing countries have begun to grapple with how zeroing out global GHG emissions will affect their future coal, oil, and gas production.
This report provides country profiles for 15 countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The profiles summarize each country’s stated national climate ambitions; available information on government views, projections, and support for fossil fuel production; and emerging policies and discussions towards a managed and equitable wind-down of production.
While some countries are beginning to discuss and enact policies towards a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuel production, these efforts have not yet affected the plans and strategies of major producing countries.
Feature / The 2021 Production Gap Report shows governments' fossil fuel production plans remain dangerously out of sync with the Paris Agreement’s temperature limits.
Press release / Over the next two decades, governments are collectively projecting an increase in global oil and gas production, and only a modest decrease in coal production.
Perspective / Countries need to pair their emission reduction commitments with clear and transparent plans to wind down fossil fuel production.
Past event / Leading authors of the 2021 Production Gap Report walk through a detailed review of the report's findings. Watch the webinar.
Natalie Jones
Initiative / The Carbon Lock-In Initiative seeks to uncover and address the barriers that uphold the fossil fuel-based economy.
Initiative / This SEI initiative creates a platform for high-quality, timely and policy-relevant research and communications on various facets of fossil fuel development.
Project / This database showcases ongoing research into Covid-19 recovery packages from a climate and energy perspective.
Past event / This London Climate Action Week Event convened researchers and government and UN officials to preview findings from the 2020 Production Gap Report.
Feature / The new Production Gap Report shows that the world is on track to produce 120% more fossil fuels than can be burned under 1.5°C warming.
Feature / The 2020 Special Report outlines how Covid-19 recovery plans could set the stage for a managed wind-down of fossil fuels as part of “build back better” efforts.
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