Raising climate ambition for land-based mitigation: Regional engagement for global impact in Africa

The workshop takes input from various research results, syntheses and stakeholder engagements that have been carried out at local, national, or regional levels, and can be divided into three main types:

1. National case studies, in which detailed analyses and stakeholder consultations for different LMTs were carried out, resulting in an “LMT portfolio” and LMT scaling scenarios to characterising the most promising LMTs and their expected impacts and interactions, in terms of how they could be scaled up to achieve NDCs and other climate and development goals.
2. Regional outlooks, based on a review of key policies and mechanisms at the regional level, along with regional perspectives obtained through stakeholder interviews and consultations; and
3. Land-vegetation-carbon modelling, carried out at national, regional and global levels, all based on Shared Socio-economic Pathway 2 (SSP2), which is the “middle of the road” pathway among the five SSPs used as reference points within the Integrated Assessment Modelling Community and as the basis for IPCC Assessments. Three scenarios are used to determine the implementation until the year 2100, using a particular set of LMTs, with each scenario related to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) adopted in IPCC Assessments, and corresponding to different greenhouse gas concentrations in the year 2100:

• Baseline: uses RCP of 4.5 W/m2, which is expected under most scenarios to be associated with average temperature increases close to 3C.
• Moderate ambition: uses RCP of 2.6 W/m2, which is expected under most scenarios to be associated with average temperature increases close to 2C.

• High ambition: uses RCP of 1.9 W/m2, which is expected under most scenarios to be associated with average temperature increases close to 1.5C.

The models are limited in the number of LMTs that can be evaluated and thus five were chosen:

1. Afforestation (includes reforestation and forest management).
2. Agroforestry (trees planted within agricultural areas, with specific characteristics).
3. Biochar (sourced from land availability as calculated and used as a soil amendment).
4. Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)
5. No-tillage (no or minimal tillage in agricultural areas)

There is limited discussion on LMTs not modelled as appropriate to their national or regional significance. After presentations on selected issues outlined above, workshop participants will be asked to debate and evaluate LMTs, levels of ambition, and regional engagement options, thereby contributing to a set of narratives to be developed later to capture these elements.