Developing scenarios for non-CO2 forcers for Latin America and Africa region using LEAP

The FOCI project aims to support the development of policy recommendations by bridging knowledge gaps on the impact of non-CO₂ climate forcing pollutants (also known as short-lived climate pollutants – SLCPs) such as black carbon, methane, hydrofluorocarbons, and tropospheric ozone and its precursors, on climate change and their linkages to air pollution episodes and health impacts.

Scenarios focusing on CO₂ mitigation do not consider emissions of non-CO₂ forcers and the detail of the policy measures and development priorities of countries. Therefore, there is a need to better understand the options to reduce non-CO₂ emissions, considering specific national contexts and focusing specifically on reducing these emissions.

A key stage of FOCI is developing historical emission estimations and future projections in specific regions (Latin America and Africa) and globally in key sectors (agriculture and waste) to understand the influence of current climate change mitigation measures over the medium and long-term on all emitted non-CO₂ forcers. In the case of Africa, this has not been well studied and the projected doubling of population by 2050 is likely to exacerbate non-CO₂ climate forcing emissions. On the other hand, some Latin American countries have committed to action on non-CO₂ climate forcers in their 2030 climate change commitments, known as National Determined Contributions (NDC).

Although many countries in Latin America have estimated and reported their greenhouse gas emissions to meet their international commitments, they usually have not included SLCPs. In addition, only few countries in the region (such as Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Colombia) have developed their own national emissions inventories linked to air quality modelling to understand the impact of the major sources of pollution. Currently, most of the air quality modelling studies in the region relies on global datasets (EDGAR, ECLIPSE, CEDS, GAINS, CAMS). Even though regional information has been included and documented in global emissions, these may lack the specificity and accuracy associated with local practices and technologies that are often better represented in local statistics.

The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) tool has been used to model new nationally appropriate emissions scenarios (historic and projections) for these two case study regions at country level, emphasizing major anthropogenic emission source sectors that evaluate the implementation of nationally appropriate and relevant non-CO2 climate forcing mitigation measures. The integrated emissions inventories will provide quantitative evidence to support stakeholders in the targeted regions with decision-making and policy assessment to reduce emissions of non-CO2 forcers.