As the impacts of climate change continue to intensify, the EU is transitioning to a more climate-resilient Europe. Four key policies drive this shift: the European Green Deal, the European Commission Adaptation Strategy launched in 2021, the 2022 Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change and the EU-wide Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) due in 2024.

Against this background, the project Unpacking Climate Impact Chains (UNCHAIN) has been well placed to offer timely and relevant insights into the EU adaptation policy process. This brief summarizes the UNCHAIN approach and results from 11 European case studies.

Key Messages

• Policymakers can make adaptation “smarter” by using the Impact Chain approach to analyse both conventional local climate risks and lesser well-known transboundary climate risks.
• Policymakers should embrace uncertainties by applying a reflect-then-act rather than the predict-then-act approach; by including socio-economic scenarios for a range of possible developments, from likely to unanticipated; and by ensuring transparency in communications.
• International actors can invest in method innovation, data collection and decision-support tools to identify and assess transboundary climate risks. They should also foster greater cooperation in adaptation planning and implementation across jurisdictions.
• Policymakers and relevant stakeholders should engage throughout the climate risk assessment process, to co-develop climate information and solutions that capture their needs, knowledge and perspectives and that account for social vulnerability and equitable adaptation.

Correction (12 June 2023): A contributing author’s last name was incorrectly spelled. It is Reuschel, not Reuchel.