What does COP28 need to deliver?

COP28 represents a critical benchmark toward countries fulfilling the Paris Agreement, featuring the first “Global Stocktake” of progress since the watershed 2015 pact. Previewing the status of global climate action, the UNFCCC already issued a report in September 2023 indicating the world remains far off track in achieving the Paris Agreement goals, which call for limiting global warming to 1.5°C or at least “well below” 2°C this century.

This occurs at the end of a year in which global temperatures shattered record-highs month after month, likely making 2023 the hottest year in recorded history, exceeding the pre-industrial average by 1.43°C. Wildfires devastated Canada. Floods leveled critical infrastructure and cities in Libya. The North Atlantic Ocean also reached unprecedented high temperatures, with cascading effects on marine life and the food chain.

At a COP hosted by the CEO of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company, fossil fuels are expected to draw the spotlight. Meanwhile, parties will also work to build upon recent progress made toward an operational Loss and Damage fund for vulnerable countries; increasing financial support for climate adaptation, especially for the poorest; launch a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation; strengthen the credibility of net-zero targets; and shepherd a global just transition away from fossil fuels that supports the livelihoods of those who rely on the fossil fuel economy.

Here are SEI’s priorities for COP28:

Strengthening the credibility and integrity of net zero targets

The UN High-Level Expert Group on the Net-Zero Emissions Commitments of Non-State Entities (HLEG) released a report during last year’s COP that set a benchmark for evaluating net zero claims and called for regulation by corporations and other non-governmental organizations. COP28 can build on that, including with an eye toward finance industry actors’ support for fossil fuels in the context of net zero commitments.

Governmental net zero claims may also face scrutiny under the Global Stocktake process. While 151 national governments have made net zero pledges in recent years, experts say greater climate ambition and transparency is required across the board to realize such goals.

Expanding the phase-down/phase-out language to cover all fossil fuels

The 2023 Production Gap Report, published in November, found that countries in aggregate still plan to produce twice the amount of fossil fuels consistent with adhering to the 1.5°C goal. While parties will negotiate the speed and degree to which they will transition away from fossil fuels and ramp up a clean energy system, fossil fuel industry representatives will also be included in the talks. So far, COP agreements have only called for the phase-down of coal and fossil fuel subsidies.

Pressure will mount to increase ambition on this front as countries navigate the Global Stocktake and aim to meet Paris Agreement goals.

“COP28 must send a clear signal that the fossil fuel age is out of gas — that its end is inevitable,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in November. “We need credible commitments to ramp up renewables, phase out fossil fuels, and boost energy efficiency, while ensuring a just, equitable transition.”

Launch of the framework on the Global Goal on Adaptation to account for the international nature of climate risk

COP28 brings promises to make the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) a top priority since it was conceived in the Paris Agreement. Since 2015, little progress has been made to meet the rising threat of climate catastrophe to a growing proportion of the world’s population. But countries are expected to finalize and adopt a GGA framework that could shape the effort’s design, scope, implementation and monitoring.

The challenge will be to produce a framework that is robust in scale but with flexibility for local needs. Adaptation may also be addressed more broadly as part of the Global Stocktake.

Climate finance

The COP28 Presidency has declared “fixing climate finance” one of its top priorities. Doing so will require the world’s wealthiest countries to “radically scale up” funding, especially for the energy transition in emerging economies and adaptation in the most vulnerable countries. Wealthy countries have announced their achievement of the US$100 billion goal, but the gap in support for adaptation continues to grow. Rebuilding trust after years of broken promises is vital to the long-term success of the Paris Agreement.

At COP28, countries will continue to discuss a new climate finance goal and will review progress on funding for adaptation.

Operationalizing the Loss and Damage fund

COP27 provided a pivotal turning point in the effort toward developing a Loss and Damage fund that provides financial and locally relevant support to countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. With the support of G77+China, countries agreed to establish a Loss and Damage fund, but that came with the added task of developing a framework for its operation throughout the following year. Countries recently reached agreement on key details, but uncertainty remains. Should it come to fruition, it can fill financial gaps for developing countries that bear the brunt of unexpected climate disasters.

COP28 will serve as the venue for additional progress on this front, with the possibility of fully financing and operationalizing the fund.

The Just Transition Work Programme and the need for a justice-centred and accountable approach to implementation

Established at COP27, the Just Transition Work Programme provides an opportunity to comprehensively evaluate and scale up efforts to achieve the Paris Agreement in a way that protects the socioeconomic interests of populations that could suffer destabilizing consequences of a global energy transition.

The debate on the scope of this effort – whether it should be limited to the energy sector or extend beyond it – will resume at COP28.